All notes
Method / 2025-01-22
Fact, inference, hypothesis — three different letters
Mixing confidence levels is the most expensive error in a letter to a venue.
A fact can be shown by source. An inference stands on method. A hypothesis keeps a branch alive, but it cannot be sold as established.
TRACE keeps these layers apart so the analyst does not ‘improve’ the picture for the client.
The client is entitled to unpleasant clarity. That is what we sell — not a story of full recovery.